Looks like this one could get very interesting
By Paul Homewood
Readers will recall the story from a few weeks ago, about how Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, claimed to have briefed the Cabinet Office about the Beast from the East in early February.
This is how it was reported in The Times:
Britain’s freezing “Beast from the East” exploded into life thousands of miles away, in the tropical waters of the western Pacific — and ministers were warned that it was coming a month ago.
Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, briefed the Cabinet Office four weeks ago, warning of a freeze. He was confident enough to stock up his home with extra supplies.
Scaife stocked up with wood and other supplies
“I got extra oil, food and logs in, knowing this was coming,” he said last week.
His warning came after his team spotted a massive…
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Wolsten 
I could have told them on December 1st that the risk of severe weather during winter 2017/18 was 20%, significantly higher than anything I’ve seen since making my long range forecasts in 2013, the risk usually being 2% to 5%.
Also in December, when the first cold spell struck, the Met Office said there was a risk of cold and snowy weather lasting to the end of the month. Within days, however, that risk vanished and the weather turned mild. Those Met Office outlooks seem to change with every GFS operational run. In other words any idiot with a modicum of knowledge on model output could make the same forecast!
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