On the Reproducibility of the IPCC’s climate sensitivity

I wonder what @RHarrabin of the BBC will make of this?

“The conclusion is that the IPCC’s warming values are about 200 % too high (1.75 degrees versus 0.6 degrees) because both the CO2 radiative forcing equation, and the CS calculation include water feedback.”

Watts Up With That?

Guest essay by Dr. Antero Ollila

The highest ranked scientific journal Nature published on the 28th of July 2016 an article based on the survey for 1,576 researchers. More than 70 % of the researchers were not able to reproduce the results of another scientist’s experiments. Are there any attempts to reproduce IPCC’s climate sensitivity?

I think that the most important key figure of the climate change science is the value of the climate sensitivity (CS), because it describes the warming effects of the major greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO2). CS means the temperature increase corresponding to the doubling of CO2 concentration of 280 ppm.

1. IPCC’s estimates of climate sensitivity

IPCC still uses a very simple equation in calculating the global mean surface temperature response dTs (AR5, p. 664)

dTs = CSP* RF (1)

where CSP (also marked by lambda) is the Climate Sensitivity Parameter (K/(W/m2)) and RF…

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